# live modeler

Interactive what-if tool in the Signals panel. Override model inputs with your own estimates and see how the math changes.

## The Three Sliders

### Your Estimate

Your subjective probability for the market outcome. This replaces the composite probability in all calculations.

* **Range**: 1% to 99%
* **Default**: Current composite probability
* **Effect**: Changes Kelly sizing, EV, and Monte Carlo baseline

### Volatility

Your expected price volatility going forward.

* **Range**: Low to High (normalized scale)
* **Default**: Estimated from historical price data
* **Effect**: Changes Monte Carlo spread, Empirical Kelly uncertainty penalty

### Time to Resolution

How long until the market resolves. Override this if you know the exact date or think resolution will come early/late.

* **Range**: 1 day to 365 days
* **Default**: Actual days to resolution date
* **Effect**: Changes theta decay, Monte Carlo time steps, lifecycle urgency

## Live Outputs

As you move any slider, these update in real-time:

| Output                        | What It Shows                                       |
| ----------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------- |
| **Kelly (Full/Half/Quarter)** | Optimal bet size at your estimated probability      |
| **Empirical Kelly**           | Becker-adjusted sizing with your volatility         |
| **Expected Value**            | EV and ROI given your estimate vs market price      |
| **Monte Carlo Histogram**     | Simulated outcome distribution with your parameters |
| **Edge**                      | Gap between your estimate and market price          |

## Use Cases

<details>

<summary>"What if I'm more bullish?"</summary>

Slide Your Estimate above the market price. Watch Kelly increase and EV go positive. The bigger the gap, the more Kelly recommends.

</details>

<details>

<summary>"What if volatility spikes?"</summary>

Slide Volatility up. Monte Carlo distribution widens. Empirical Kelly decreases (more uncertainty = smaller position).

</details>

<details>

<summary>"What if this resolves sooner?"</summary>

Slide Time to Resolution down. Theta accelerates. Monte Carlo has fewer steps, tighter distribution.

</details>

<details>

<summary>Testing edge sensitivity</summary>

Slide Your Estimate just a few points above market price. If Kelly recommends less than 2-3%, the edge is marginal and taker cost probably eats it.

</details>

## Tips

* The modeler uses the **current market price** as the other side of the bet. If the market moves while you're modeling, refresh.
* Use it **after** reading the AI analysis and signals. Let the data inform your estimate, then test your view.
* **Quarter Kelly** from the modeler is the most practical sizing for real trades.


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