# decision framework

A structured approach to using the terminal for prediction market analysis. Ten steps from scanning to deciding.

## The Process

{% stepper %}
{% step %}

### Scan the Markets Table

Sort by volume (most liquid markets first) or 24h change (most volatile). Look for markets with significant volume that have moved recently.
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{% step %}

### Check Sector Barometers

The Sectors panel shows aggregate sentiment across 8 categories. If a sector is trending strongly in one direction, individual markets in that sector may follow.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Select a Market

Click a market row to load it across all panels.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Read the AI Verdict

The Analysis panel gives you an immediate read: verdict (YES/NO/LEAN), confidence score, and a one-line summary. This is your starting point, not your conclusion.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Check the Composite Probability

In the Depth panel's Models tab, compare the composite probability (fair value from 11 signals) against the current market price. A significant gap suggests potential mispricing.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Examine the Signals

The intelligence brief in the Analysis panel breaks down:

* **Edge**: Where the model sees opportunity
* **Timeline**: When the market resolves, urgency level
* **Momentum**: Price direction and acceleration
* **Smart Money**: What large holders and whale traders are doing
* **Data**: Volume trends and market activity
* **Contrarian**: Whether the crowd may be wrong
  {% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Check Whale Flow

In the Flow panel, look at large trades. Are whales buying YES or NO? Does their direction align with the AI verdict?
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{% step %}

### Verify with Intel

Read the latest news in the Intel panel. Check holder distribution. Look at key dates. Does the fundamental picture support the quantitative signals?
{% endstep %}

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### Size the Position

If you see an edge, Kelly Criterion tells you how much to risk. Conservative traders use Quarter Kelly. The terminal shows Full, Half, Quarter, and Empirical Kelly.

{% hint style="warning" %}
**Warning:** Check the Taker Cost Warning. If the spread is wide, your expected cost of executing may eat your edge.
{% endhint %}
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Decide

You now have:

* AI verdict + confidence
* Composite probability vs market price
* 9 enriched signals
* Whale flow direction
* News context
* Position sizing recommendation
* Bias zone and taker cost checks

Make your decision. Or pass and scan the next market.
{% endstep %}
{% endstepper %}

<details>

<summary>When to Be Skeptical</summary>

* **Low volume markets**: Models are less reliable with thin data
* **Extreme odds** (>95% or <5%): Limited edge, high taker cost
* **Conflicting signals**: When whale flow and AI verdict disagree, dig deeper
* **Near-expiry markets**: Theta decay accelerates, spreads widen
* **Bias zones**: Markets in longshot or favorite bias territory need extra scrutiny

</details>


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