# enriched signals
Nine signal categories computed from cross-referenced Polymarket data. These feed the composite probability model and the AI analysis engine.
## Data Sources
Four parallel data fetches power all 9 signals:
| Source | API | Data |
| ----------------- | -------- | -------------------------------------- |
| **Price History** | CLOB API | Historical prices at various intervals |
| **Trades** | Data API | Last 200 trades with side, size, price |
| **Holders** | Data API | Top 20 holders per side (YES/NO) |
| **Open Interest** | Data API | Outstanding position value |
***
1. Momentum
Linear regression on price data across three windows.
| Metric | Description |
| ------------------------- | --------------------------------------------- |
| **Direction** | BULLISH, BEARISH, or FLAT |
| **Slope (7d)** | Short-term price trend |
| **Slope (30d)** | Medium-term price trend |
| **Slope (90d)** | Long-term price trend |
| **Acceleration** | Change in slope (speeding up or slowing down) |
| **ATH/ATL Distance** | How far from all-time high and low |
| **Historical Volatility** | Standard deviation of log returns |
2. Volume Trend
Daily trade aggregation with trend detection.
| Metric | Description |
| ------------------- | ------------------------------------------ |
| **Signal** | SURGING, INCREASING, STABLE, or DECLINING |
| **7d vs 30d Ratio** | Recent activity relative to baseline |
| **Spike Detection** | Flags days with 3x+ average volume |
| **Daily Volumes** | Aggregated trade counts and values per day |
3. Whale Signal
Analysis of trades >= $500 (configurable threshold).
| Metric | Description |
| ----------------- | -------------------------------------- |
| **Sentiment** | ACCUMULATING, DISTRIBUTING, or NEUTRAL |
| **Net Flow** | Dollar value of whale buys minus sells |
| **Buy Count** | Number of whale buy trades |
| **Sell Count** | Number of whale sell trades |
| **Largest Trade** | Biggest single whale trade |
4. Holder Conviction
Concentration and balance analysis of top holders.
| Metric | Description |
| ----------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ |
| **Concentration** | HIGH, MODERATE, or LOW |
| **HHI** | Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (0-1, higher = more concentrated) |
| **Top 3 Share** | Percentage of total held by top 3 holders |
| **YES Total** | Aggregate YES position value |
| **NO Total** | Aggregate NO position value |
| **YES/NO Ratio** | Balance between sides |
5. Lifecycle
Market age and urgency classification.
| Metric | Description |
| ---------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Maturity** | NEW (<7d), YOUNG (7-30d), MATURE (30-90d), VETERAN (>90d) |
| **Urgency** | CRITICAL (days left), HIGH, MODERATE, LOW |
| **Market Age** | Days since creation |
| **Days to Resolution** | Days until end date |
6. Volume-Price Divergence
Compares 7-day price change against 7-day volume change.
| Signal | Condition | Meaning |
| ----------------------- | ----------------------- | --------------------------- |
| **BEARISH\_DIVERGENCE** | Price up, volume down | Rally losing steam |
| **SELLING\_EXHAUSTION** | Price down, volume down | Selloff may be ending |
| **BREAKOUT\_BUILDING** | Price flat, volume up | Potential breakout incoming |
| **CONFIRMED\_RALLY** | Price up, volume up | Healthy uptrend |
| **CONFIRMED\_SELLOFF** | Price down, volume up | Genuine selling pressure |
7. Buy Pressure Trend
Compares recent buy ratio (last 3 days) against prior period (days 4-7).
| Signal | Meaning |
| -------------- | ------------------------------ |
| **SURGING** | Buy ratio accelerating sharply |
| **BUILDING** | Buy ratio increasing |
| **NEUTRAL** | Buy ratio stable |
| **FADING** | Buy ratio declining |
| **COLLAPSING** | Buy ratio dropping sharply |
8. Holder Rotation
Cross-references YES/NO holder balance with whale flow direction.
| Signal | Condition | Meaning |
| -------------- | ---------------------------------------- | ------------------- |
| **SMART\_YES** | YES-heavy holders + bullish whales | Smart money on YES |
| **SMART\_NO** | NO-heavy holders + bearish whales | Smart money on NO |
| **DIVERGENCE** | Holders and whales disagree | Conflicting signals |
| **YES\_HEAVY** | YES dominance without whale confirmation | Retail YES bias |
| **NO\_HEAVY** | NO dominance without whale confirmation | Retail NO bias |
9. Smart Money
Composite signal combining holder concentration, whale sentiment, and momentum.
| Edge Signal | Conditions | Conviction |
| -------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------- | ---------- |
| **STRONG CONVICTION BUY** | High concentration + accumulating whales + bullish momentum | 8 |
| **STRONG CONVICTION SELL** | High concentration + distributing whales + bearish momentum | 8 |
| **SMART EXIT** | High concentration + distributing whales | 7 |
| **ALIGNED BUY** | Accumulating whales + bullish momentum | 7 |
| **ALIGNED SELL** | Distributing whales + bearish momentum | 7 |
| **WHALE ACCUMULATION** | Accumulating whales (alone) | 6 |
| **WHALE DISTRIBUTION** | Distributing whales (alone) | 6 |
| **MOMENTUM BUY** | Bullish momentum (alone) | 5 |
| **MOMENTUM SELL** | Bearish momentum (alone) | 5 |
Conviction scores range from 5 (weak) to 8 (strong).
## Calibration
All thresholds are configurable via the calibration object:
* Whale trade minimum ($500 default)
* Volume spike threshold (3x default)
* HHI concentration threshold (0.25 default)
* Momentum lookback windows
* Buy pressure comparison periods
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